New York Jets and the narrative of draft value

We discuss the narrative of some that the New York Jets gave up too much draft value to move up to number three overall.

The New York Jets shocked the football landscape by executing a blockbuster trade with the Indianapolis Colts back on March 17. For anyone who missed it, the Jets gave up the sixth overall pick, numbers 37 and 49 in the second round and a second round choice next year in return for the number three pick. It’s as aggressive as we have seen the Jets get in a long time, really since the trade that ended up bringing them Mark Sanchez. The assumption is this move was for a quarterback once again.

Many felt the Jets made a great move. The feeling is that the team finally understands that they need a franchise quarterback and are doing what they have to do to get one. Some are still skeptical of the trade, with the complaint being draft value. The narrative is they gave up too much draft value for something that isn’t a sure thing. Some wondered why they would give up all of that for potentially the third best quarterback in the draft. Let’s talk about this narrative here.

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How are people coming up with a figure for draft value? In the 1990’s, the Dallas Cowboys came up with a draft pick value chart that has become the reference that teams live by. What it does it provide a point value for each draft pick so teams have an approximation of what each pick is worth in putting together a trade.

The chart gives the third overall pick a 2,200 point value. That’s what the Jets received so let’s see what they gave up. They gave up the sixth pick (1,600 points). the 37th (530 points), and the 49th (410 points). Obviously we don’t know the pick in the 2019 second round so to be fair we give it the lowest number, 270 points.

Add all of that together and the point value the Jets gave up was 2,810. Based on that by the book viewpoint, the Jets gave up too much. Add to it the fact that it won’t necessarily be the number one quarterback on the board and you would think the naysayers have a valid beef.

But that chart doesn’t take into account the situation. If you take the situation into account you get into RELATIVE draft value, and that makes the trade make sense.

Next: Full first round mock draft

The Jets need a quarterback in the worst way. Everybody knows it. It’s no secret why the Jets made this trade to begin with. They finally get the fact that it is time to take a quarterback high in the draft. With that said, they also realized that sitting at number six made it less likely to get the player they want. So, they threw caution to the wind and moved up as high as they could.

When a team is targeting a premium position like quarterback, there really is no value to set on getting the player they want. The chart can go out the window when you are trying to upgrade a premium position. The fact of the matter is the Jets didn’t even give up a first round pick in the future, only the sixth round pick this year. You could argue that the Jets got great value, despite what the chart says.

And nobody in the draft is a guarantee, so to say they moved up for something that isn’t a guarantee is a bit of a false argument. Everyone in the draft is an educated guess. The Jets made the smart move based on their situation. Period.

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