New York Mets concerns one month in – EWB Roundtable
By Ed Stein
Ed Stein, Empire Writes Back
The New York Mets have played some exciting games so far this season. They are a game over .500, but the underlying numbers show their record is better than they deserve. There are several reasons why this is true.
I’m a big believer in the old Vin Scully axiom, “statistics are used the same way a drunk uses a lamppost, for support, not illumination.” In other words, believe what you see, the numbers will then back it up. Stats shouldn’t be a surprise. In 27 games, the Mets have a run deficit of -19. Only two teams in the National League are worse, Pittsburgh (-29), and Miami (-58).
There is a stat created by Bill James called Pythagorean wins. It’s the number of games a team should win based on runs scored and runs allowed. The Mets Pythagorean record coming into Sunday’s game with Milwaukie was 11-15, which translates to a .423 winning percentage. When I watch the Mets play, I haven’t seen a contender, I’ve seen lots of inconsistency, poor pitching, and mistakes.
Most troubling so far are two areas that appeared to be team strengths when the season began. First, of course, is starting pitching. As a whole, the Mets starters are 14th in the NL with a 5.28 ERA, tied for 13th in WHIP (1.45), and last in innings pitched (130.1). As mentioned in the outset of the article deGrom is having elbow problems and has been anything but the anchor of this staff. With the exception of Steven Matz (3.86), no Mets starter has an ERA under 4.85.
The second area which looked like strength was the bullpen, it isn’t. Even though Diaz has been lights out, the relief staff still has the second-worst bullpen ERA of 5.64. Take “Sugar” out of the mix and it balloons to 6.26. Again, my eyes (and ears) are telling me the relievers can’t get anyone out and the numbers back it up. Even though the Mets bats have been hot, the can’t cover the deficiencies in the pitching staff much longer.
What are your big concerns about the Mets? Let us know in the comments section below.