New York Mets: How 12 games truly shows the difference a year makes

For the New York Mets, the recent seasons have felt long and grinding. A lot of losing, bizarre injures, and the failure to put it altogether for 162 games. However, this column is about two small sample sizes that tell it all.

The New York Mets are 12 games down in the 2019 season and as you might remember, that otherwise random number is actually very significant. 12 games into the 2018 season, the Mets stood tall at 11-1. They lost their third game of the season before a run of nine straight wins that swept the MLB world off of their feet. I am sure you remember it all. I mean, how could you not? It was the best start in franchise history. But, this is baseball. Those 12 games should not and do not tell the whole story of that season.

The Mets’ run to begin 2018 ended up being less impressive once we had more context, or a larger sample size. The Mets won their first 11 games against teams that all ended up missing the playoffs. But more importantly, everything went right. For example, the Mets ended up winning a game in which Hansel Robles got the win. That says a lot.

In addition to that, there was a game in which the Mets won because Adrian Gonzalez hit a grand slam against the Nationals. At the time, that felt like a legit win. Maybe the Mets were on to something?

As it turns out, in that 12 game sample size, there was nothing of real substance. Behind multiple wins by Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in the early going, the Mets were just winning games against what ended up being bad teams in the most random of circumstances.

Shortly after that magical 11-1 run, came the month of June. The Mets won five games all month, including a stretch of three straight. That equates to two wins spread out over the course of the rest of an entire calendar month. Shout out to Wilmer Flores for a walk off hit for one of the wins that month, absolute legend.

Overall, we can look back at those 12 games, or the small sample size and pretty much agree that the Mets were a bad team in 2018, at the very least they were a wildly inconsistent team that did everything in stretches. Won three straight, lost seven straight. Win nine straight, lose three of four.

Those 2018 Mets were all over the board. Nothing was truly sustainable outside of deGrom’s brilliance. But even he got more losses during that month of June than wins and he had one of the best seasons ever. A true reflection that pitching wins is a team stat.

Adrian Gonzalez and Hansel Robles, the apparent contributors to that 12 game hot start, both didn’t make it as Mets through the end of 2018, they were both gone shortly after the early summer collapse.

In that same hot stretch in April, Amed Rosario had barely even touched the surface. He batted .238 and had just 19 hits in April and March.

Michael Conforto? Another dubbed member of “the core”, he was injured to start the year but quickly came back to bat .222 in April.

Brandon Nimmo? He started just six games in March and April last season. He eventually turned it around, but was a non-factor in that early magical run.

Everything about the Mets through the first 12 games of last season was almost an outlier, that hot start was basically just a lot of fake wins vs teams like the Cards, Nats, Phils, and Marlins who all missed the playoffs.

The 2018 Mets were what we get when you take out that 12 game start and the entire month of June, that is a better example of who the Mets are. That is the sample we are seeing that can be looked back on as what they are for this year.

But, what a difference a year makes, right?

Out are guys like Gonzalez, Flores, and Robles. In for the first 12 games of this year are guys like Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz. There are many other players the Mets have added, but having new players is just a normal thing.

Now, the Mets once again find themselves over .500 after the first 12 games of the season but this time, a more down to earth 8-5. For those wondering 12 games is 7.4% of the season. So maybe all of this does not matter, there is barely even a dent in the completed part of the schedule.

But what is an interesting thought that I would like to share is this. At 8-4 so far this year, I feel a whole lot better than I did about the Mets at 11-1 last year. And that doesn’t even mean I think the Mets are actually going to be good the rest of the year, nor will I even go as far as predicting they will be. It is just that I simply think they have a better chance of sustaining it this time.

For that take, there are many reasons. For starters, the upgrade at first base is black and white. Going from Adrian Gonzalez to Pete Alonso is like going from watching a mid-afternoon game in June to Game 7 of the World Series. Alonso is must see TV who is producing while Gonzalez felt like a Plan Z for the Mets last year.

Last season for the month of May, Gonzalez actually was not bad, in 21 games played he went for a .227 AVG, 3 HR, 17 RBI, and 15 hits.

So far this year, Alonso in just 12 games, already has 17 RBI, is batting .378, has 17 hits, and 5 HR.

While that is also not a stat line that will keep going or even stay the same all year-long, he is already an upgrade at first base, and this is just the beginning. This isn’t mean to show you how much more productive Alonso is over a guy the Mets knew wasn’t good, it just shows that the Mets have better talent so this hot start isn’t as much of a fluke.

As for more of those “the core” players, they are picking more up from where they left off at the end of the last year as opposed to the beginning. In the last two months of the season last year, Rosario batted over .280 and had more than 30 hits each month. He played in 24 or more games both months as well.

Now, that is carrying over into this year, while is still not in peak form , Rosario has 13 hits, 10 RBIs, and is batting .283 in 12 games, he could shatter his numbers from last April/March.

Conforto, well he could be more the exception than the rule because he was coming back from surgery last season but this year he is absolutely raking. He is batting .348, much better than his start last year.

Nimmo, well his numbers wouldn’t exactly fit this narrative but he has already played in 12 games which is going to end up being more than the 18 he played these two months last year and his .150 average now will go up and he has six hits already this year as opposed to his 10 in March/April last year.

Let’s not forget the Mets have a full season of Jeff McNeil now too…

As for the pitching, minus a few wins from Seth Lugo like last year, the Mets have similar pitching. In their 12 game start in 2018, Steven Matz, deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler all got wins. This year so far, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz all have wins again, but the pitching was never the problem last season, over any amount of sample size.

Yes, I suppose we can offset the win Robles got last year with the win by Jeurys Familia earlier this year, but that is really the only thing about how the two seasons mirror each other.

Fun fact, during the first 12 games last year the Mets scored six runs or more just six times in 2017 and have done so eight times so far this season. They are just a better offensive team now.

Overall, the Mets are not an 8-4 team that is winning games with the heart of their players struggling. The Mets are winning games at a more normal rate and the players who are supposed to be the best are producing actual offense that is helping them stay in games.

Yes, the Mets’ bullpen is similar to last year in the sense that they are struggling and make games more difficult and that is concerning, but let’s take that issue day by day.

But, between the offense starting productive, Mickey Callaway having managed a hot start before and learning how quickly it could go, and the rotation picking up where it left off, there is way more to this 8-4 start than there ever was to an 11-1 start.

Buckle up, Mets fans, we have seen how poorly this could end. But, I would like to think this time it won’t end as bad, it at least shouldn’t end as abruptly with the way everyone is playing. There is still a lot of pressure on Mickey Callaway to not let a collapse happen again though.

12 games into a season, under 8% of the season, is more than enough to show us the difference a year makes. These are some wild times we are living in.