New York Yankees: Alex Cobb now is cheaper than Chris Archer later

If the New York Yankees want to add depth to their starting rotation, they should sign Alex Cobb now rather than acquiring a starter at the trade deadline this summer.

The New York Yankees are World Series contenders as the 2018 season draws near. If there’s one weakness in their talented roster, however, it’s starting rotation depth. Their starting five is the same pitchers who got them one game shy of the World Series last year, but what if injuries strike?

Injuries are certainly unpredictable but if you were to bet on a position group getting injured on any team, you’d put your money on a starting pitcher going down. As easy as MLB pitchers make it look, throwing a baseball is not a natural motion. Add in 95+ mph heat and sharp breaking balls, and their arms are just waiting to snap.

If one of the Yankees’ starters gets hurt, who will step in? Luis Cessa has repeatedly proven he can’t consistently get major league hitters out. Top prospects Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield both proved this spring that they aren’t quite ready for The Show. They may give the Yankees some valuable innings late in the season, but if an injury occurred early on, New York could be in trouble.

Too bad there isn’t a quality starting pitcher looking for work. Wait … Alex Cobb is still a free agent?? That’s right, it’s March 20 and Cobb is still unemployed.

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Cobb has proven he can be a more-than-capable middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, with a career 48-35 record with a 3.50 ERA. He’s pitched his entire career with the Tampa Bay Rays, proving he can handle the offenses of the AL East. Cobb had Tommy John surgery in 2016 but came back to make 29 starts in 2017, going 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA.

After helping the Yankees get to the playoffs, Cobb could be a postseason asset. He has a 1.54 career postseason ERA in two 2013 starts.

In what was a wacky offseason for MLB free agents, Cobb’s market has been somewhat non-existent. In an offseason where Lance Lynn signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the Minnesota Twins and Mike Moustakas had to return to the Kansas City Royals on a one-year, $6.5 million contract, Cobb can’t be expecting a big payday.

The Yankees should be able to fit Cobb into their budget and remain under the $197 million luxury tax threshold. According to spotrac, the Yankees total salary sits at just over $171 million. A one-year, $10 million deal would still give New York plenty of room for mid-season call-ups and trade acquisitions. However, if Cobb is on board, there may not be much need for mid-season acquisitions.

The other wrinkle with Cobb is that the Rays extended him a qualifying offer which he rejected. This means that if the Yankees signed Cobb, there would be draft pick compensation. Because the Yankees exceeded the luxury tax in 2017, they would lose their second- and fifth-round draft picks as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money for signing Cobb.

Keep in mind, however, that those draft picks are unknown commodities. The Yankees don’t know who will be available when those picks come around and even after drafting a player, they don’t know how he will turn out.

If the Yankees choose to wait until the trade deadline to acquire a starter, they’ll have to give up prospects who they’ve seen play in the minor leagues and know more about. In order to acquire Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer, or whatever top starting pitcher is available this summer, the Yankees would have to give up top prospects who are much more valuable than second- and fifth-round draft picks.

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The Yankees may be holding off on Alex Cobb right now so they are better positioned at the trade deadline. But if they add Cobb to their starting rotation, they could be sitting around this summer watching other contenders panic trying to close the gap between themselves and the practically-perfect New York Yankees.

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