New York Yankees: Take Jake Arrieta off of the free agent radar

It will be tempting but the New York Yankees need to stay away from Jake Arrieta.

The New York Yankees need help in the starting rotation. Despite the 2017 success, there are leaks there. C.C. Sabathia is not getting any younger and there are leaks around the rotation. The group needs to be improved and is part of why we hear about the interest in Shohei Ohtani. The Yankees need help here.

Jake Arrieta, the star pitcher from the Chicago Cubs, is a free agent. Everyone who is reading this knows the talent of Jake Arrieta. In five years with the Cubs, Arrieta has won nearly 70% of his starts with a record of 68-31. He has recorded 793 strikeouts in 803 innings and an ERA of 2.73 with Chicago. This is the type of pitcher that commands that elite money on the open market. MLB Trade Rumors is predicting a four-year, $100 million deal for Arrieta.

There are many teams that will be interested in the services of this talented pitcher. The question is should the Yankees be one of them? Today is the day to announce that the answer to that question is no.

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First of all, the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. In 2015, Arrieta won the Cy Young award with a record of 22-6 and a 1.77 ERA. The following year he went 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA. Last season he went 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. In just two years time, Jake Arietta has allowed nearly two more runs per nine innings and won less ball games. These are not the numbers of a pitcher whose stats are trending upwards.

Is that to say that Arrieta is now a bad pitcher? Of course not. But huge contracts go to great pitchers, not good ones. Or at least they should. If 14-10 and a 3.53 ERA is worth the mega deal somebody is doing something wrong. These are absolute red flags about a pitcher that may just be past his prime.

Let’s say for the sake of the conversation that Arrieta gets exactly what the prediction says he will. Let’s give him that four-year, $100 million contract. He will be 32 when the season begins. That means that in the final year of his contract he will be 36 years old. Even with a bounce back year in 2017, does anyone really think that the back of that contract will look as good as the front? It never does for a pitcher. By the third or fourth year, the Yankees will regret signing that deal.

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It’s always a difficult decision when elite pitching becomes available. It doesn’t exactly happen every day. When it does, what is a team to do? It would be wrong to just blindly jump at the chance to make the acquisition when a lot of money is involved. As tempting as this might be, the Yankees need to stay away and try something else.

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