New York Knicks: Is Kristaps Porzingis Getting Worse?

The New York Knicks had high hopes for the future when they selected Kristaps Porzingis with the 4th overall pick of the 2015 NBA Draft. His rookie season showed flashes of potential, but has he been developing or regressing this season?

We often hear New York Knicks‘ president, Phil Jackson, receiving due credit for his selection of Kristaps Porzingis in the 2015 draft. Fans can blame Jackson for many of the Knicks’ struggles, but they are thankful for him taking Porzingis.

In a way, he lucked into Porzingis, because his top three targets, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and D’Angelo Russell, were already off the board. Regardless, almost all of New York eagerly await the days for Porzingis to be among the league’s best.

Last season, fans were so enamored by his exciting put-back dunks and impressive shooting ability, that many thought he would become a superstar sooner than later. His athletic ability and skills are undeniable, but he still had major obstacles to overcome.

He didn’t play full games as a rookie because of his conditioning. Coming from a European league, his body was not ready for the tempo of an NBA game, so he had to ease his way into big minutes.

Now in his second season, Porzingis has dramatically improved his conditioning to an acceptable level. He has consequently seen a bump in playing time, which rose from 28.4 minutes per game last season to 33.0 minutes this season. With this rise in minutes, his statistical production also increased from 14.3 points per game to 18.6 points per game in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Still, can we automatically say that Porzingis is getting better just because his scoring average went up a few points?

If we take a closer look at the numbers, we can see that most of his shooting percentages have gone up. In 2015-16, Porzingis shot 42.1% from the field, including 45.4% from two and 33.3% from three. This season, he is shooting 45% from the field with 48.5% from two and 38% from three. The only decrease is his free throw accuracy, which fell from 83.8% to 77.9%.

Extrapolating his numbers to 36 minutes, his production looks as such:

That’s all impressive for a 7’3″ big man, so then what’s the problem?

The main complaint of fans this season is not seeing Porzingis play down low. He doesn’t play as physical as other power forwards and centers, largely because of his 240 lb frame. In spite of his low weight, it would be nice to see Porzingis developing his interior moves against other big men. We know he has the shot, but adding post moves and becoming an inside presence can turn him into a complete player.

Porzingis is attempting more threes this season, roughly 5 per game compared to 3.5 attempts last year. His two-point attempts also went up this year from 8.9 attempts to 10.1. Although it’s an increase, fans want to see a bigger jump in twos. In the current offensive system, the ball spends the majority of time with Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony. They want to see Porzingis demanding the ball down low and taking advantage of his 7’3″ height against smaller defenders instead of simply pulling up or watching Rose and Melo.

On the defensive side of the ball, his size is not impacting games the way it should. He is averaging the same 1.9 blocks per game this year as last year, but he is not viewed as a defensive threat. Despite the increase in minutes, his rebounding took a hit, dropping from 7.3 total rebounds per game last season to 7.2 this season. This drop-off should be concerning, because as someone who is 7’3″, Porzingis should be grabbing around 10 boards per game.

Porzingis is very similar to Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid. Embiid has the same skillset as Kristaps, a 7-footer who can shoot and ball handle, but where they differ is inside the paint. Embiid demonstrates a wide array of interior moves and traditional big-man ability, while Porzingis does not. The “Dream Shake” is only one move in Embiid’s arsenal, and he takes full advantage of his height every game. Embiid is also a defensive force, averaging 2.5 blocks per game.

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Technically a rookie, Embiid has undoubtedly been better than Porzingis this season. Whether or not it’s because the Sixers have coaches who specifically target player development or because they don’t have Melo/Rose, Porzingis should not let this season continue to be a waste. He needs to become more assertive in games and has to use this year to actively improve his areas of weakness.

The stunted development also extends to the coaching staff, who need to make efforts to establish Porzingis as the face of the franchise similar to how the Sixers did with Embiid. This means game-planning to have the ball in his hands more in games, regardless of the final outcome.

There are games where Porzingis has had terrible shooting slumps, and these are the games when the coach should be telling him to play down low. By feeding him the ball inside the paint, he will have more success taking higher percentage shots with his size. This type of design will not only end his slump but will also boost his confidence.

I think this coming offseason is a very important phase in the development of Porzingis. So far this season, he has not taken the big strides that everyone expected him to. By gaining some more weight and learning to use it, he will become much better next season. If he spends time training and practicing with Hakeem Olajuwon this summer, he will develop much faster.

The Knicks can’t just play Porzingis more minutes and assume that he will develop on his own. They need to surround him with the right teammates and coaches to ensure that he will achieve his potential.

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We don’t know if he will ever reach the superstar level of play expected by fans and the front office, but with the team struggling this season, it would be nice to see his development be the bright spot on the season.

I don’t think Porzingis is getting worse, but I also don’t think he’s getting much better.

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