New York Mets: Rafael Montero is an important piece in 2016

With all the potential between the five starters of the New York Mets’ projected rotation, it’s easy to forget about a once highly touted prospect.

Rafael Montero has been in the Mets system since 2011, when he was just 20-years-old. Now at the age of 25, the man who was once considered a better prospect than deGrom, is competing for the final spot in the Mets’ bullpen.

One of the reasons Montero has yet to have Major League success is his health. Last year, issues with his right shoulder arose that caused to Mets to shut him down for the season. In addition to his physical health, the Mets have also questioned Montero’s mental status.

“I want to see Rafy again,” Dan Warthen, the Mets’ pitching coach, told the New York Times. “I want to see the kid I knew two years ago. The kid, not just the pitcher… He seemed depressed all year, like there was something wrong all the way from spring training. I want to see that smile again. I want to see him bouncing around. I want to see him happy again.”

If Montero can pitch pain free in 2016, it would be a good reason for him to smile. He pitched in 10 games in the winter league this offseason and claimed to feel very healthy. But spring training will be the deciding factor to see if he can start the season with the Mets. It was announced on leap day that Montero would be the first pitcher to start for the Mets in the Grapefruit League, possibly indicating that the team really wants to get a good look at him against the opposing teams’ best batters. Facing Major League batters has not come easy for the right-hander.

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When Montero was pitching in the minors, he built the reputation as a pitcher who had above average control for his age. His BB/9 with all minor league levels combined was a 2.1 (2.5 is considered above average for the Major Leagues). His fastball sat in the mid-90s, and the command of his secondary pitches was impressive for his age. But his short stints in the big leagues did not reflect the reputation he had built.

In his 54.1 innings pitched in 2014 and 15 combined, both as a starter and reliever, his ERA was 4.14 and his BB/9 was at 4.5. Of course, this isn’t nearly enough innings to come to a conclusion on a pitcher. Especially one who had a number of successful seasons in the minors. And over the course of 2016, he should have some opportunities to prove himself.

Heading into the season, there is some concern surrounding Matz and the fact that he hasn’t pitched more than 140 innings in the minors. If he, or any other pitcher, were to find themselves on the disabled list, Montero would have a legitimate chance to re-establish himself and give the Mets yet another valuable rotation piece. His current Steamer and ZiPS projections for 2016 have him taking a step forward with a 3.89 and 3.86 ERA, respectively. What is interesting is that Steamer clocks him out after 46 innings while ZiPS has him going for 98, which just goes to show that his role and usage is up in the air at this point. But having him on the roster is a pitching luxury the Mets have been getting used to.

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One of the most vital elements a championship contending baseball team can have is depth. Just look at what the Cubs, the team who is projected by Fangraphs to have the most wins this season, did by signing Dexter Fowler.

Fowler gives them a fourth outfielder who is worthy of starting on a daily basis. Manager Joe Madden can now mix and match to give his team the best advantage on any given day while also giving one outfielder a day of rest. Another benefit to adding Fowler is that, if an injury occurs to one of their outfielders, it shouldn’t derail their entire season. Montero brings this same strategy to the Mets rotation and/or bullpen. If he finishes the season with similar stats to his projections, then he is like a typical number four or five man in a Major League rotation. Except for the Mets he is the sixth or seventh man.

Bringing back Bartolo Colon shows that the Mets don’t fully trust him yet to start the season as the number five starter. And Terry Collins used it as a motivational piece to try and pump up Montero.

“You should have been the guy,” Collins told Montero. “Get your act together. We haven’t forgotten about you. We still want you.”

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If the Mets can get the pitcher they saw in the minors, it would go a long way to helping them in 2016 and beyond. The likely scenario is that he is used as a spot starter this year and then, in 2017, takes on the role Colon currently has. Another benefit to Montero bouncing back is the potential to trade him down the stretch. Last year the Mets were able to acquire Yoenis Cespedes, this year, maybe they trade for an established reliever or another bat if necessary. Whatever the case may be, the Mets will benefit in a big way if Montero can have a come back season.

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