New York Jets: The Quarterback Dilemma

Aug 9, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (6) on the sidelines in the second quarter of a preseason game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
I’m not surprised that the Jets named Mark Sanchez the starter for Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I’ll lay out my reasoning below—but I was so convinced I wrote this about all the swirling “who’s gonna start?” questions: “I do feel for Head Coach Rex Ryan though. It’s plain to see he’s sick of answering questions about it. If I were Rex, I’d just ask the Jets media dept. to tweet it out once a decision has been made. I bet the NFL’s media policy police would frown on that though. Still, the Jets could have a little fun with it.”

I was just about to hit Publish and go live.

And then the Jets did this:

I can’t make this stuff up.

Anyway, here was my reasoning: Sanchez had a solid week of practice. It’s time for more live reps with the starters in particular to solidify snap count/cadence issues and try to get the penalty situation under control. This is an offense that cannot afford to hand out 5 yard freebies to opponents. It’s fine to give Geno Smith some work too, but the Jets have a built in excuse to the fans for Sanchez starting. They can just claim they are being super cautious with their rookie QB and don’t want to expose him unduly to further injury especially since he still seems pretty hobbled. It’s a face saving out for everybody, not that that should be the driving motive. If Smith’s ankle improves he can still get some live reps without the scrutiny of being the starter.

Speaking of scrutiny, I hope Sanchez understands how critical this start is for him. He needs to put together two or three sharp series where he moves the chains, hits his receivers and doesn’t turn the ball over. No one screamed louder at the TV than I did when he threw that boneheaded pick six. I recorded that game and rewatched it and was just as horrified the second time. If Sanchez keeps that up, he’s going to be holding a clipboard for the rest of his NFL career. When that screen play broke down, Sanchez should have thrown the ball out of bounds or taken the sack. Yardage lost through penalty or sack is far preferable to a turnover in that situation. That cannot happen again. This is Sanchez’s bête noire.

I hope everyone on Team Sanchez understands that every snap he takes right now is his audition tape for continuing to play quarterback in the NFL, especially as a starter. Every single organization is watching. Even if it’s only their scouting department keeping tabs. All teams understand that INT’s will occur. A receivers slips or gets tangled up with a defender, balls get tipped. It happens. But picks like that errant screen pass are 100% on the quarterback. Sanchez, not the Jets, will decide his own fate if he keeps it up. Full disclosure: I’ve been a Sanchez supporter ever since he got drafted. I watched him all through his USC career.

Then, in 2009, he was drafted 5th overall to the Jets. That rookie season was a roller coaster. The Jets started hot, winning at Houston and then opening at home by beating Tom Brady and the mighty New England Patriots. Remember those halcyon days Jets fans? There followed an up and down season, color coded wristbands and an improbable run all the way to the AFC Championship Game. I am fully aware that the defense and the run game did the heavy lifting. But people who discount QB play aren’t being realistic. It matters. If you don’t believe me, remind yourself of the game defining touchdown Sanchez tossed to Dustin Keller to beat San Diego in the divisional round.

So maybe the Jets overachieved in 2009. But they got right back at it the following season and posted an 11-5 record which included a series of dramatic come from behind wins engineered by Sanchez. The next thing you know, they are back in the AFC Championship Game only to lose in the final minutes to Pittsburgh. It’s worth remembering that Rex’s beloved defense lost that game by being unable to get a stop against the Steelers in the final minutes. In fact if it wasn’t for Sanchez and the offense, the Jets would never have come within striking distance of winning that game.

Which brings us to 2011: In my opinion, that is where all the trouble started. After two improbable playoff runs, the Jets started to believe all the hype. I think they thought the regular season was a mere formality on the way to another successful post season and that the third time would be the charm. That sense of entitlement led to their doom. They failed to realize that their success meant they had a huge target on their back. The Jets would sneak up on nobody that year.

As far as Sanchez’s development, his third year which should have been a huge opportunity for growth, was stunted. In practical terms both the run game and pass protection deteriorated because the front office didn’t make sure that the offense had enough depth. Couple that with Brian Schottenheimer trying to turn Sanchez into Drew Brees 2.0 instead of continuing to build on his strengths, and add in two years of tape for opponents to scout? The Jets weaknesses turned into glaring liabilities. The suspect pass protection was an issue all year. It was so bad Sanchez’s nose was broken against Oakland and he was brutally sacked on the very first offensive play against the Ravens. Poor pass protection for a quarterback who is being asked to throw more will not lead to a good outcome.

The season started to get away from the Jets after a rough 2-3 start. Every defensive coordinator in the league could see the issues and worse, that the Jets were doing nothing to correct them. Sanchez for his part, started playing hero ball, partly out of self preservation to avoid taking more hits and partly because his default “win” switch just wouldn’t allow him to take sacks or throw the ball away. This resulted in horrendous turnovers that demoralized the team and ripped apart the locker room.

That’s how you go from 11-5 to 8-8 and out of the playoffs. You would think, after that sobering reality, the Jets would take inventory and approach the 2012 season with heads down and a yeoman-like “one game at a time” attitude. Instead they doubled down on the crazy by importing the Tim Tebow circus. The minute that trade was announced, I knew the Jets would have a losing season. And so they did. They finished 6-10 with the locker room in further shambles and the fan base up in arms. The once promising Rex Ryan era was now a shell of itself.

As far as Sanchez, the Jets did him a horrible disservice in 2012 making things even worse than 2011. Once again, they failed to identify what their quarterback did well and then put him in a position to succeed. Just as an example, Sanchez can often get into a nice rhythm when the coaching staff lets him run no huddle. They completely took that skill away by pulling him and inserting Tebow at the most inopportune times thereby killing any momentum the offense had established. The coaches had no ability to self-correct and the losses piled up and got more cover your eyes ugly every week. 2012 was a wasted year as far as quarterback development on the field goes.

Mentally? That remains to be seen.

The media’s view is that Sanchez has lost confidence. I think that is wrong. But that doesn’t make sense to most observers unless you understand Sanchez’s background. And that means going back to Cali. People forget that he comes from SoCal jock surf culture. It is hard to overstate how much that culture permeates everything about Southern California. I think it’s best summed up as: Uber competitive but with a laid back attitude. New York observers mistake that laid back attitude for not having a backbone.

Wrong.

Bogart another surfer’s wave and see what happens. I don’t recommend it. That competitiveness is the reason why he is still standing in this QB competition. Sanchez may well be gone at the end of the year, but he will not lie down and make it easy to get rid of him. And, boneheaded pick-six aside, maybe we’ll see the re-emergence of the player who was on his way to becoming a quality NFL starter until the Jets derailed his development the past two years. Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg is the key to turning this around. He actually understands how to develop quarterbacks. I’ll give you a perfect example from last week’s game. Right off the bat the Lions brought the heavy pass rush off the (still) weak right side of the line. Next thing you know – six points the other way and frustrated Jets fans groaning “not again!” But then something amazing happened. Mornhinweg trotted Sanchez right back out there and…they changed the protection. Sanchez had additional blocking help in the backfield. It wasn’t flawless, but those couple extra seconds made all the difference. Suddenly the Jets’ offense was moving the chains. An in-game adjustment like that is a 180 degree turnaround from last year. Sanchez was visibly energized. So too were the other offensive players. Make no mistake, they have heard the chirping about how they don’t have playmakers and have no chance. They’ve seen the power rankings that have them in the cellar.

I still don’t think this is a playoff team. But with Ryan back intimately involved in the defense, they will not be pushovers. Who knows how the offense will perform. But at the very least it is in the hands of an experienced Offensive Coordinator who understands that without putting your quarterback in a position to succeed, you cannot win on a consistent basis. This bodes well for both Sanchez and Smith. Maybe Sanchez will pick up where he left off in 2010. If he doesn’t, and if the Jets elect to start Smith mid-season, Smith will benefit too. This is the most encouraging sign we’ve seen from the Jets in two years.

Sanchez has a chance to redeem himself and keep his options open as a starter. Smith, likely to be disappointed if he does not get the opening day nod, won’t be thrown unprepared to the NFL defensive wolves and will have a chance to learn and grow. The media will make the inevitable comparisons to last year’s rookie quarterbacks and demand he start. But just watching Smith, I don’t think he is ready yet. The West Coast Offense is a marked deviation from what he ran at West Virginia. There is no hurry. Smith is under contract and will get his chance to play at some point.

Aug 3, 2013; Cortland, NY, USA; New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) drops back to pass during training camp at SUNY Cortland. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Look, I am well aware of the Sanchez fatigue that permeates the fan base and media. But the last two years have been a textbook case in how NOT to develop a young quarterback. Taking the long view, Jets fans need to understand this. Maybe Sanchez will rediscover his form. Maybe not. But for those who want Geno now, hard as it is to swallow, this is actually the right way to go. Don’t set the rookie up to fail.

Everyone knew this would be a rebuilding year. But, even this early there are small signs the Jets might be finally getting back on the right trajectory.