Noah Syndergaard Has Become A Liability For The New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard is undoubtedly a very talented pitcher. The hype surrounding the New York Mets top pitching prospect coming into the season has not been quelled since he reached the major leagues and debuted on May 12th. He has been electric every time he has taken the mound and is part of what looks like it will be the best starting rotation for many seasons to come, if it already isn’t. But, taking a deeper look, Syndergaard has become a liability for the Mets this season as they make their push for a playoff spot in the National League.
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Taking a look at Syndergaard’s stats on the surface will show a lot of positives. He carries a 7-6 in 17 starts, with a strong 3.07 ERA. In 105 ⅔ innings, Syndergaard also has 111 strikeouts to go along with only 24 walks; his 25.9 strikeout percentage is above the league average of 20.6, while his 5.6 base on balls percentage is better than the 7.6 percent average as well. He even has an above average double play percentage, as he has converted eight of 60 opportunities for 13 percent, better than the league average of 11.
Even the sabermetrics and advanced stats paint a pretty picture for Syndergaard. He has a very strong wOBA at .283, better than players such as Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez and Cole Hamels. His 3.11 SIERA and 3.09 XFIP are also both in line with his regular ERA, which is a good thing to see; both SIERA and XFIP are advanced metrics to further delve into a pitcher’s ERA.
By all those accounts, Syndergaard has been a positive for the Mets, so you may be asking; how has he become a liability? Taking a look at his split stats and it becomes very apparent.
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When pitching at Citi Field, Syndergaard is nothing short of dominant. In nine home starts, Syndergaard has a 7-1 record with a 1.82 ERA in 64 ⅓ innings pitched. He also has 65 strikeouts to go against only eight walks. Add that to the .182 batting average against, and there aren’t many tougher players to get on baseball against than Syndergaard at home as his WHIP stands at an impressive 0.81.
But when Syndergaard starts on the road, he turns into a pitcher worse than replacement level. In the eight starts he made on the road prior to Wednesday against the Baltimore Orioles, Syndergaard carried an unsightly 5.01 ERA. He is also winless, going 0-5 away from Citi Field.
In the eight starts prior to Wednesday against the Orioles, Syndergaard managed to pitch only 41 ⅓ innings. While his strikeout rate is higher on the road with 46, the rest of his stats head in the wrong direction. He has double the amount of walks on the road as he did at home despite pitching 23 less innings, while also giving up more hits than innings pitched. Those numbers combined result in an unsightly 1.55 WHIP; of qualified pitchers, only Jeremy Guthrie has a worse WHIP at 1.57 in the major leaguers, while the ERA would be fifth worse.
Jul 28, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
He has also struggled with the long ball on the road, giving up five in those eight starts; keep in mind he has given up only six at home. Citi Field is not the pitcher’s haven it had been in past seasons either, as the newest dimensions are much more hitter friendly.
For whatever reason, Syndergaard also struggles to hold players on base while on the road as well. This could also be because of who is catching him, but Syndergaard has given up four stolen bases to one caught stealing at Citi Field, but has allowed all eight attempted base stealers on the road to reach successfully.
None of those numbers will be improving after Wednesday’s starts against the Orioles, has he managed to make it through only five innings, giving up eight hits, two walks and another home run for three earned runs to go along with six strikeouts. The Orioles were also able to swipe three bases off Syndergaard, as even the slow-footed Chris Davis was able to steal second against him. While the Orioles have been on fire recently at the plate, those numbers go right along with how Syndergaard has been performing away from home all season and the Mets are lucky he surrendered only three runs despite 10 base runners.
Looking at the slash lines of Syndergaard’s opponents paints as cut and dry a picture as you need. At home, he allows opposing hitters to hit well below replacement level, slashing .194/.227/.286. But, on the road, he is giving up above-average, middle of the order production with a slash line of .284/.342/.467.
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Whatever the reason may be, the Mets need Syndergaard to figure things out on the road. They cannot afford to throw him out there and put themselves at a disadvantage everytime he takes the mound. They may have a 3.5 game lead over the Washington Nationals now, but that can change very quickly, especially since they play each other six more times this season.
With the implementation of a six-man rotation possibly looming, it would do the Mets well to configure it in a way that strengthens themselves, not weakens them. One of those ways could be skipping Syndergaard’s starts on the road.
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