In a story by John Harper of the New York Daily News it has been reported that New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson has told executives and personnel that he believes the Mets should win 90 games this season.Line makers on the betting website Bovada.com were far less optimistic about the Mets’ season than the GM when they released their pre-season win total lines, projecting the Mets’ to win 73.5 games.
There’s a big gap between those two figures.
As with most things I believe there’s two sides to this story, and that the truth will fall somewhere in the middle. I don’t believe that the Mets will be worse than they were last year, when they won 74 games, but I certainly do not foresee 90 wins, which would assure the ball club of a trip to the postseason. I stated earlier this off-season that I believed this years Mets would win 77 games, nothing that has happened so far in Spring Training has made me believe anything otherwise.
The MRI to Jon Niese‘s left shoulder that was conducted today came back clean, so I expect him to be ready top take the ball come Opening Day, if manager Terry Collins opts to pitch him March 29th, which I believe he should. That was the only news thus far that could have swayed my number.
How could the Mets get to 90 wins? It would require new Met Curtis Granderson staying healthy and producing like he did in 2011 when he scored 141 runs, drove in 119 and hit 41 homers (highly doubtful), New Met Chris Young would have to emulate his 2010 season when he hit 27 homers and drove in 91 runs (again, highly unlikely), 40 year old new Met Bartolo Colon would have to pitch as well as he did last year when he was sixth in AL Cy Young voting, David Wright would have to stay healthy for the entire season, Ike Davis would have to return to his production from the second half of 2012, he finished that year with 32 homers and 90 RBI after a dreadful start, highly touted catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud would have deliver on his promise, pitching prospect Zack Wheeler would have to take a Matt Harvey-esque step in his development, and the bullpen would have to be lights out. That’s a lot of variables.
How could the Mets win less than 74 games? Long term injuries to a few of their key guys or underproduction from Granderson, Young, Colon, Wright, or Wheeler could all see the Mets fall under that mark.
I don’t foresee the Mets winning less than the 73.5 game projection from Vegas, but it seems far more likely than the Mets eclipsing 90 wins as Alderson has stated. I’m sticking with somewhere in between.